2011: The Year Of The Injury

Is your fantasy football season in a tailspin? Every NFL year comes with it's fair share of injuries, but it is tough to remember a season filled with so many high profile players going down long term.  Here is a look at one of my teams bitten by the injury bug:

Count the "Os"

Peyton Manning would be the most notable injury so far this year.    The Colts have said recently that he will be evaluated on a "month by month basis."  That's never a good sign. The Colts have yet to place Manning on the IR, so there is a chance (however small)  that he will return before the end of the season.  His absence has put his importance to the franchise on display for the world to see so far this season.  The Colts have started off 0-3, and have shown an offensive prowess that is reminiscent of the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Manning isn't the only quarterback feeling the pain.  In week 2, Michael Vick sustained a mild concussion, but was cleared to play in week 3.  Of course in week 3, he immediately broke a bone in his non-throwing hand. Also in week 2, Tony Romo broke a rib, and punctured his lung. Somehow Romo managed to brush off the lung hole, and play in week 3 (I hear he may have been huffing Fix-A-Flat.)

The running back position has taken a few big hits in the injury department as well. Jamaal Charles, the superstar of the Kansas City Chiefs (and pretty much their entire offense,) suffered a season ending injury in week 1. That was devastating for the 2010 AFC West Champions, as they too have started the 2011 season 0-3. Arian Foster, 2010 NFL rushing champion, has been suffering from a nagging hamstring injury since the preseason.  Up until now, he has been operating on a week to week basis.  Although, he has yet to see any significant playing time, only getting about a half of work during week 2. 

In the wide receiver department, Miles Austin is expected to miss at least one week with a hamstring.  As of right now, Austin "isn't being ruled out" of the Cowboys week 4 match up with the Lions, but it doesn't look promising according to reports.  Marques Colston of the New Orleans Saints has already missed two games this season with a fractured collarbone, and is likely to miss at least two more.

At tight end, Aaron Hernandez has a sprained MCL, which sidelined him for at least week 3.  This news was met with delight from all the Rob Gronkowski owners, who now get to reap the benefits of only one pass catching tight end in New England. 

Even the kickers are getting in on the injury fun.  Garrett Hartley of the New Orleans Saints has yet to kick this season.

The NFL season is only three weeks old, and already the damage is piling up for a lot of teams.  Look no further than Indianapolis to see the effect that the loss of one man can have on a franchise.  Every player that I mentioned is the number one guy at their position for their respective team.  It will be interesting, moving forward, to see how the loss of so much talent will be compensated for by all parties involved.

NFL Playoff Predictions After Two Weeks: The AFC

Week three is just two days away, and what could be more fun that making some really early playoff predictions?  Obviously, there is a lot of football to be played before anybody can seriously start talking playoffs, but since I was too lazy to do it before the season, I am going to do just that right now.  I do have a slight advantage over everyone else, as I have had the privilege of watching two weeks of football before making my playoff picks. I will number them by what I think their seeds will be.

AFC:

1.) New England Patriots

In my opinion (and just about everyone else on the planet), New England is the clear favorite to win the Super Bowl this year.  Tom Brady has played incredible in the first two games, breaking the record for most yards to start the season..  The offense in general has looked almost as unstoppable as the 2007-2008 Patriots team that finished 18-1. I don't really see anyone, including the Jets being able to stop this juggernaut.

2.) Houston Texans

I am picking the Texans to get the second seed, and the bye solely because of their division.  Houston has been on the cusp of reaching the playoffs for a few years now, and with Indianapolis losing Peyton Manning to injury, I feel that this will be the year.  The Texans have five division games left. That will probably act as a huge advantage to them considering the lack of any conceivable talent in that division.  Besides, with Manning out of the picture, nothing really stands in the way of the Texans rolling over the mediocrity that the AFC South has become.

3.) San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are another case of outclassing the rest of their division.  The Raiders seem to be a solid team, just not great.  In addition, Oakland just doesn't seem to like winning close games that come down to the wire.  Last week they managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by being unable to hold off the Buffalo Bills in the waning seconds of the game.  I feel Oakland will be no better than a .500 team this year.  The Kansas City Chiefs might just be the worst team to ever grace a football field, especially now that Jamaal Charles is out for the year.  And the Denver Broncos really just look like an average team at best.  Of course if they end up as an average team this year, that is vastly improved over what most experts were predicting from them before the start of the season.

4.) Baltimore Ravens

I think the Ravens will emerge on top in the yearly blood bath that is the battle for the AFC Central.  Joe Flacco gradually improves every year, and finally removed that giant monkey from his back by soundly defeating his arch nemesis Ben Roethlisberger in week one this year.  The Baltimore defense is still in the upper tier of the NFL, and Ray Rice is one of the games top running backs.  Truly, the only real hurdle the Ravens must overcome is the Pittsburgh Steelers, and after the Week One thrashing, the Ravens hold huge mental and mathematical advantages.

5) New York Jets

As impressive as the New England Patriot offense has been, the New York Jets defense has shined just as bright.  It seems inevitable that these teams will once again meet in the playoffs, and the winner of that game will in my opinion be the AFC Super Bowl representative.  The only downside to this Jets team is quarterback Mark Sanchez.  Believe me, I do realize by the way that I am not breaking any new ground with that statement. It seems to be the general consensus that Sanchez is just not a big time, franchise supporting quarterback.

6.) Cincinnati Bengals

I realize that I look like a crazy person by typing the words Cincinnati Bengals here.  Everybody and their mother would probably put the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens as division winner and wild card representative.  I like the Bengals for a few reasons.  For starters, with the exception of the Kansas City Chiefs, the Bengals schedule hits just about every terrible team in the NFL this year. Meanwhile, the surprisingly effective play of rookie quarterback Andy Dalton has added an exciting element to the Bengal offense.  As for what the Bengals can't control, I think the end is finally here for this version of the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Between the aging defense, and the stagnant offense, I think a major drop off is in their very near future.  I definitely think the Steelers miss the playoffs this year, and someone has to take their place.  Really the only other real possibility is the Miami Dolphins. They however, have started the season 0-2 and still have three more games against the Jets and Patriots.  Those two factors are major blows to their playoff hopes, even this early. A few people might be wondering about the Buffalo Bills.  They may be off to a great start, but again, they play in that brutal AFC East.  Also, lets not forget, that this team is only 8 months removed from a 4-12 season.

NFL Week 2: What To Look For

Week 2 of the NFL season is upon us, and there are a few questions posed during Week 1 that are begging to be answered. Here are some things that I will be watching for:

Pittsburgh Steelers:

Last week was one of the worst losses by the Steelers in recent memory.  Only the 13 point loss to the Patriots last year in Week 10 comes close to the level of domination the Steelers felt last week in Baltimore.  Luckily for Pittsburgh, one of the NFL's worst teams is flying in from the left coast to help erase the memory of last weeks debacle. 

Last year the Seattle Seahawks were the 27th ranked defense in yards allowed, and the 28th ranked offense in yards gained.  With Matt Hasselbeck gone, and Tavaris Jackson at the helm at quarterback, one could only assume that the offense is trending downward. 

Prior to the season, most analysts put Pittsburgh among the elite in the AFC. After last weeks pathetic performance, those predictions are in serious doubt.   Questions that were raised about the aging defense, and the stability of the offensive line are now at the forefront of the debate.  Only a lights out defensive effort, and stellar offensive performance can put those issues to rest for the time being.

Detroit and Buffalo:

I will grant the fact that the Detroit Lions are a much improved team compared to the last few years.  The problem I have with all the hype surrounding them is that they are The Detroit Lions. In recent years the Lions have been the Pittsburgh Pirates of professional football, and until they prove otherwise, I am not buying. 

They beat a decent Tampa Bay team last week 27-20, and this week face the Kansas City Chiefs.  With the Chiefs embarrassing 41-7 loss to the Bills last week, the Lions won't prove much with a win this week.  A loss however goes a long way to saying that the Lions are just pretenders once again.  So like the Steelers, Detroit needs to pull of a fairly convincing win to quiet the naysayers such as myself.

The Buffalo Bills are another team that is garnering a lot of attention thanks to that blowout victory last week in Kansas City.  Coming into this season, nobody put them near the top of any power ranking.  Now, thanks to one big victory, Las Vegas has them three point favorites at home over the Oakland Raiders,  I am not saying that the Raiders are a juggernaut, but they are the superior team of the two in my eyes.  Regardless of the Vegas line, any victory in this game is a huge step in the right direction for the Buffalo Bills.

Arian Foster:

The NFL's top rusher in 2010 missed Houston's Week 1 game vs. Indianapolis due to a nagging hamstring injury.  According to Coach Gary Kubiak, Foster "looks ready to play." Hamstring injuries are one of those problems that can linger on, and cause issues all season long. 

While a full workload is out of the question, it would be nice to see a strong performance without any signs of weakness from Foster.  If he can make it through the game without limping off the field, then a huge weight will be lifted off the Houston Texan's backs. 

Arian Foster is one of the cornerstones of that perpetual middle of the pack team, and they need him 100% to finally break through to the top of the AFC.

The Key To Fantasy Football Success...Mediocre Backups

I know you are going to see my title and think I am crazy. But the number one killer in fantasy football is starting the wrong player when you have a tough decision. I can not count the number of times I have lost because I had three good running backs, and I benched the wrong guy. It happens all the time. I much prefer having two every week starters, and one bye week plug in. The two positions where this comes into play the most are quarterback and defense. Those are the positions where two fairly equal players will lead to a match-up based sit/start decision every week. I have adopted the strategy of not trying to play match-ups at those positions, and just sticking with the same starter every week. The NFL is so unpredictable that playing a weekly guessing game will lead to many incorrect decisions throughout the course of a season. Most of the time a mistake will not affect the outcome of a game, but when it does, it really stings. I have actually lost two very close championship games in the last six years by picking the wrong running back five minutes before kickoff. (Continued Below...)



Now, I am not suggesting you should ever pass on the best player available during a fantasy football draft. This situation I am describing is unlikely to play out early in the season. The odds of drafting a third or fourth running back/wide receiver that is superstar quality right out of the gate is very rare. You would have to be in a league of extraordinarily inexperienced fantasy players for that to occur. More likely one of your drafted sleepers, or an early season pick-up will blossom into a legitimate number one guy midway through the season. When this happens you are suddenly faced with a weekly dilemma. If you have made it through the byes at running back or wide receiver, and have a tough choice every week, I say trade for value. Why have a top running back/wide receiver sitting the bench every week just in case one of your other players goes down? If your running backs are this strong, then you are likely to have a deficit at some other position. Why not trade the running back with the highest value and maximize the return at wide receiver, tight end or quarterback?

I realize that the main argument against this strategy is the potential for injury. But I am more of a believer in back-up handcuffing than benching a legitimate starter. I also realize that most people will wholeheartedly disagree with my strategy. Call it amateurish, but it does reduce the headaches that accompany watching your top running back put up 15 yards against the Lions, while someone just as good is on the bench and goes for 150 and a TD against the Steelers.

Fantasy Football...Naming Your Team Properly

The NFL Preseason is underway. That means fantasy football is almost here. Everywhere you look, experts are speculating on who should go number one and who might be great late round sleeper picks. I read all the advice, and every year the experts could not be more wrong. So, since I am the furthest thing from a fantasy guru, you won't be getting any of that here. My expertise lies in the realm of funny and clever team names.

(It should be noted that most of my example names won't be as funny as they could be. I am trying to keep this article somewhat clean, and most of my true gems have been very vulgar and offensive.)

One thing that bothers me every year are the mundane, uninspired names that people manage to come up with for their fantasy teams. Every league I am in has an "Eagles Rule", or a "Bill's Bears". Invariably, at least one person will take their favorite team's name and replace the "S" at the end with a "Z". In fact, this year alone I will be facing off against the "Raiderz" and the "Cowboyz". Rarely will I stumble across someone with a creative bone in their body. I am here to help you strategize on the best possible name for your team. Lets go over a few categories that you can choose from to spice up your fantasy team.

Double Entendre

Football is ripe with all sorts of possible double entendres to choose from. Football has tight ends, balls, encroachment, illegal touching, and many more. Any one of these can be a hidden gem just waiting to be unearthed. If you are in a league with friends, just pick one person to insult and add a football term to his name. In fact, go after the guy who named his team "Bill's Bears". I recommend something like "Bill Loves Illegal Touching", or "Bill Wants A Man In Motion".

Insult Someone Elses Team Name Directly

If innuendo isn't your cup of tea, just go straight for the jugular and insult someones team name directly. This technique is great for stoking rivalries later on in the season. In this scenario, let everyone else name their team first. Then, pick the name that annoys you the most, and trash it via your team name. For example, what can we do with poor Bill and his stupid Bears? The obvious choice is "Bill's Bears Suck". This may be just as uncreative as Bill's original name, but at least it drives the point home how much you hate his name. Another possibility is just going with "I Hate Bill". I personally like this one the best. It has a bit of harsh, right to the point charm to it.

On a personal note, my all time favorite team name could fall into this category. Last season I was in a league with some friends. One member of the league started off 0-5. In his frustration, he changed his team name to: "My Team Blows Chunks". Upon seeing this, I immediately changed my team's name to: "Chunks". I will just let that one sit there, and if you get it, great.

Insult Athletes or Celebrities

Athletes and Celebrities are great fodder for team names. Everyday a story hits the internet that makes some famous person look like a giant asshole. Here are a few examples from my past:

Tiger Woods: "Tiger Roids"

Rex Ryan: "Rex Ryan Tummy Tuck"

Ben Rothlisberger: The year after his motorcycle accident I went with "Ben Crashlisberger". The year after his legal troubles I went with a very similar name that I will keep to myself.

Paris Hilton: "Paris Hilton is a..." Fill in the blank. I have used a few celebrities with this template.

In conclusion, I am not expecting everyone to be Richard Pryor when they name their teams. It would be nice however, if people took a few extra minutes to make their names somewhat interesting. After all, we do have to stare at it for the entire season.